Hey, I'm Jay

• Substack
• Instagram
• Twitter
• Message

A bit about me:
- Currently in New York
- Regularly posting essays here
- Background in engineering, finance, and bio
- Ran a small fund that grew from $3M to $20M in AUM
- Co-founded EverArt, a b2b SaaS platform focused on automating creative workflows (now MagicPath.ai).
- Recently founded Nof1, the first AI research lab dedicated to marketsI'm trying to get into the habit of certifying my predictions publicly, so here are a few random ones (some note verifiable):
- FYI these predictions were mostly made in 2023
- LLMs will end up acting as weak 'priors' for future AI systems. These will likely be hybrid architectures trained in gigantic world models, or model-based simulators
- Something like Worldcoin will become the most important economic project in the world in < 8 years (may not be Worldcoin)
- Web3 becomes a "real thing" somewhere between 2027-2032 (it took digital gold like 15 years to become a real thing, will take web3 a similar amount of time)
- Cryonics will have a major moment and start* going mainstream somewhere between 2028 - 2035 (prediction made in 2023)
- Foundation models that specialize on time-series data prediction will have a moment in < 3 years (prediction made in 2024)
- Designer babies will go mainstream in < 7 years (prediction made in 2023)
- Prediction markets will become legal in the US in < 2 years and become a _major asset class in < 8 years (prediction made in 2023)
- The first autonomous AI agent will earn $1M by itself in < 3 years (prediction made in 2024)
- The next Millennium Math Prize will be awarded to an AI (prediction made in late 2024)
- The US government will de-regulate peptides and likely eliminate phase 3 clinical trials, allowing "the market" to price efficacy instead of testing for it (prediction made in 2024)Angel Investing thesis
I'm updating my angel investing thesis into a broader, meta-thesis, but historically I've invested in crypto, bio, and AI. In bio, I've mostly invested in bold, early stage biotech companies that take technical risk and have the potential to radically change outcomes in human biology, categories like:
- DNA damage repair
- Organ, tissue, and full body replacement therapy
- Cellular (re)programming
- Gene therapy & genetic engineering
- Novel delivery mechanisms
- Cryonics
- Anything that helps us test interventions faster or more effectively
- Alternative ways to commercialize therapies besides FDA approval (charter cities, etc)

Angel Investments:

Reading List